DCF Model - SBPA GmbH

DCF Valuation Model

Created by SBPA GmbH
SYSTEM OK
BALANCE SHEET: BALANCED

How to Use ▼

1. Core Method & Growth
This is a 3-Statement DCF. Revenue drives most operating lines.
  • Fade Growth: If checked, revenue growth linearly interpolates from your Year 1 input down to the Terminal Growth rate by the final year. If unchecked, Year 1 growth persists until the end.
  • Mid-Year Convention: Discounting assumes cash flows arrive evenly throughout the year (t-0.5). Uncheck for conservative end-of-year discounting (t).
2. Terminal Value Methods
Calculates the value of the firm beyond the explicit forecast period (Year N).
  • Standard (Gordon Growth): Takes the FCFF of the final explicit year and grows it at g forever.
    (Best if you have manually tuned Year N to be a perfect "steady state" with normalized margins and Capex).
  • Enforce Stable ROIC: Ignores Year N's specific Capex/Working Capital. Instead, it calculates the mathematically required reinvestment to grow Net Assets at rate g.
    (Best for avoiding logic errors where Capex > Depreciation forever).
3. Balance Sheet & Cash
  • Constant D/E: Uses prior-year book equity; if profits are retained this can mechanically create both high debt and excess cash. Leave unchecked unless you explicitly want this behavior.
  • Distribute Dividends: If checked, all positive Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) is paid out. If unchecked, cash accumulates on the Balance Sheet, increasing Equity value.
    • 4. Monte Carlo Simulation
    Allows you to stress-test the valuation by varying key inputs (Revenue, Margins, WACC).
    • Define distributions (Normal, Triangular, etc.) in the panel below.
    • Note: Scenarios where WACC < g are mathematically impossible for perpetuity and are excluded from the results.

    1. Market Assumptions

    Use Mid-Year Discounting
    Discounts FCFF at t-0.5 instead of end-of-year.
    Linear Fade to Terminal Growth
    Linearly taper revenue growth from Year 1 to terminal growth over the horizon.
    Model Tax Loss Carryforwards (NOLs)
    If checked, tax losses offset future taxable income until exhausted.

    2. Operating Drivers

    3. Balance Sheet Drivers

    Maintain Constant Debt/Equity (advanced)
    Uses prior-year book equity; can create high debt + excess cash. Leave unchecked unless explicitly testing this policy.
    Scale Non-Current Liabs (ex Debt) with Revenue
    If checked, Non-Current Liabs (ex Debt) = % of revenue each year.
    Distribute all FCFE as dividends
    Pays out positive FCFE each year; no equity issuance modeled.

    4. Opening Financials (t0)

    Enterprise Value
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    Equity Value
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    Net Debt (t0)
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    Implied Cost of Equity
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    EV/EBITDA (FW)
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    EV/Sales (FW)
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    P/E (FW)
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    P/S (FW)
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    P/BV (t0)
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    All monetary outputs display with comma thousand separators and dot decimal separators.

    EBITDA to FCFF Waterfall

    Valuation Sensitivity (WACC vs g)

    Generates EV and Equity tables using a WACC vs terminal-growth grid. Values outside WACC > g are marked n/a.

    Income Statement

    Cash Flow Statement

    Balance Sheet

    Working Capital

    FCFF Derivation

    Debt Schedule

    Important disclaimer and limitation of liability

    This financial model is provided by SBPA GmbH strictly for educational, illustrative and informational purposes. It is a generic tool and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific person or entity. Nothing in this model, or in any output generated by it, constitutes financial, investment, accounting, tax or legal advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to enter into any transaction.

    All inputs, assumptions, projections and results are entirely the responsibility of the user. SBPA GmbH does not verify, and cannot be held responsible for, any data entered into the model or any decisions made using it. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, this model is provided on an "as is" and "as available" basis, without any representation or warranty of any kind, whether express or implied, including, without limitation, any warranties of accuracy, completeness, timeliness, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or non infringement.

    By using this model, you expressly agree that SBPA GmbH, its directors, employees and affiliates shall have no liability whatsoever, in contract, tort (including negligence) or otherwise, for any loss, cost or damage of any kind arising out of, or in connection with, the use of or reliance on this model or its outputs, including, without limitation, any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, exemplary or punitive damages, even if SBPA GmbH has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Users must perform their own independent analysis and obtain advice from qualified professional advisers before making any financial or investment decisions.